Three-quarters of fixed-income managers surveyed by Fitch Ratings expect economic growth in Europe to limp in at less than 2% next year while virtually all respondents expect emerging market economies to grow 2% or more.
The ratings agency says these findings “support Fitch’s view that emerging market dynamism is still the main driver of the global recovery”.
However, the respondents were less bullish about emerging markets than some other estimates. Only a quarter predicted emerging market growth would exceed 4%, whereas the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in April that it expects to see these markets grow 6.5% in 2011 and 2012. China is expected to grow nearly 10%, according to the IMF’s figures.
Fitch says the pessimistic outlook may reflect recent fears of a recession in the developed world.
“This quarter’s investor responses – taken in the four weeks to 29 July – clearly capture the lead-up towards the current ‘risk-off’ sentiment being seen across global financial markets, partly driven by concerns about a possible slowing in world growth,” says Monica Insoll, managing director in Fitch’s Credit Market Research group.
©2011 funds europe
