A behavioural finance analysis firm has tipped Scotland as an unlikely ‘one-to-watch’ in the UEFA Euro 2020 football tournament.
UK-based Essentia Analytics applied its Behavioural Alpha Frontier tool to the 24 competing teams. While the analysis is typically used to help fund managers with their investment decisions, in this instance it has been used to compare win-rates with win margins for all UEFA games since 2010 to produce a so-called ‘payoff’.
Scotland showed up surprisingly well in the numbers, said the analytics firm (see graph). While it does not have the best win-rate among the competing teams, its defeats have been close, thereby boosting its payoff.
According to chief product manager Chris Woodcock, a former professional footballer with Newcastle FC, Scotland are “hard to ignore” even though they lost their first game on Monday and face old foes England this Friday.
“[Scotland] appear way further up the pecking order than a hardcore football supporter might expect,” said Woodcock. “Most of their results have been in lesser tournaments, of course, but keep an eye out for something unexpected from them.”
Seasoned Scotland fans may need some convincing. Despite qualifying for eight world cups and three UEFA championships, they have never progressed beyond the first stage of a finals tournament.The team also has an uncanny knack of having great goals scored against them, including Paul Gascoigne’s winner in 1996 and the 50 yard stunner struck by Patrick Schick on Monday.
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