Fears surrounding private credit are mounting, but they may be overstated, said Anthony Tutrone, global head of alternatives at Neuberger Berman.
Speaking in London at the European Private Capital Summit on Wednesday, Tutrone said that, while no asset class is immune to a downturn, private credit has already demonstrated resilience through multiple shocks. “The private credit industry has been tested,” he said, pointing to Covid-19, rising interest rates and tariffs. “I think it performed extremely well versus other more liquid classes” .
That does not mean risks are absent. “Sooner or later… there’s going to be a credit cycle, and the default amount of loans will elevate,” he admitted . But he believes comparisons to past systemic crises are misplaced. Unlike the banking system during the global financial crisis, private credit is not backstopped by governments. More importantly, its structure is fundamentally different.
In traditional syndicated loan markets, distressed situations can become chaotic. Tutrone described the “lender-on-lender violence” that can emerge when hedge funds, high-yield investors and other creditors with differing incentives battle over restructurings . By contrast, private credit deals are typically concentrated among a small group of lenders, often through a single unitranche loan. “For private lenders like us, our goal is very simple. We’re not trying to gouge fees when a problem happens… we just want our principal back, and we want our interest,” he said .
That alignment, he argues, allows direct lenders to work constructively with companies in difficult periods. During the pandemic, NB Alternatives provided flexibility and, in some cases, additional capital to portfolio companies that could demonstrate a viable path forward. “We’ll even give you more capital. We’ll help you out,” he recalled. “Those turned out extremely well” .
On the question of systemic risk, Tutrone was unequivocal. “I don’t see it,” he said . While certain public vehicles have faced redemption pressures resembling a “run on the bank,” he emphasised that most private credit capital comes from institutional investors knowingly taking risk. In fact, he suggested that shifting risk from banks to private investors may “de-risk the financial system” overall .
Artificial intelligence presents another source of uncertainty, particularly for software-heavy portfolios. Here, Tutrone drew a distinction between equity and credit risk. Mission-critical enterprise software systems embedded in workflows are unlikely to be “ripped out” overnight . From a credit perspective, the focus is less on growth and more on durability: “From a credit point of view, you don’t care so much about growth. You care about stability and cash flows” .
Still, he acknowledged there will be winners and losers. Companies offering commodity-like point solutions or those that fail to adapt to AI may struggle. As a result, dispersion across managers and deals is likely to widen. “Investment selection, management selection, is going to be of the utmost importance going forward,” he said .
On private equity exits, Tutrone pushed back against overly pessimistic narratives. “This last year, 2025… was the second biggest year for private equity exits in history. It was up 41%,” he noted . Although exit volumes still trail the backlog of assets accumulated during quieter years, monetisation rates have improved and valuation gaps have narrowed.
However, he cautioned that investors should recalibrate expectations. The era of easy exits driven by falling rates and multiple expansion may be over. Holding periods are likely to lengthen as value creation increasingly depends on operational improvement rather than financial engineering.
This environment is fuelling rapid growth in secondaries. Transactions now account for roughly 20% of total exits, up from just 5% four years ago . Tutrone sees a “massive opportunity” in GP-led deals, mid-life co-investments and hybrid capital solutions as investors demand distributions and liquidity .
The expansion of evergreen vehicles and retail participation brings both promise and complexity. Tutrone warned against mischaracterising liquidity: “They are not liquid. They should not be sold as liquid,” he said of certain semi-liquid structures . Product design, diversification and fee discipline will be critical.
“I think that the private credit risk is overblown,” he concluded . AI disruption will create challenges across both public and private markets. But in a more demanding investment landscape, disciplined underwriting and careful manager selection will determine outcomes.
