Emerging market growth was above 4.5% once more in November, with a GDP growth rate of 5% across the regions.
However, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said any set backs from Donald Trump’s presidential victory will likely take a month or two to feed through. It also stated that the long-term effects of a Trump presidentcy are still unknown.
The IIF said that, in terms of hard data, strength came entirely from the trade component, while industrial production slipped. There was relatively little change in the pace of exports, with the most notable shift coming from Indonesian export growth turning positive.
Instead, further growth in imports underpinned the strength of the trade component. Indonesian imports flipped back to positive growth territory, while other Asian economies, particularly Thailand, India, and China saw stronger growth in imports than prior months.
With that backdrop, six of the ten countries whose merchandise exports factor into the IIF model and six of the eight countries whose imports factor into the same model saw positive trade growth over the past three months.
However, emerging market (ex-China) industrial production in aggregate fell to its lowest level since January 2016, while industrial production growth in China slowed to a six month low of 5.8%. The biggest contributors to the moderation were Brazil and Korea, where industrial production growth contracted by 12.2% and 7.0% respectively.
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