Ten years ago, something momentous happened in Paris. At COP21, 195 countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A seismic shift in the battle against climate change, or so we thought. True, progress has been made but ultimately, emissions continue to climb (1).
With climate now slipping down the political, corporate, and investment agenda, this year’s COP in Brazil is an opportunity to reset the conversation and prove the conference is more than theatrics. Aside from moving away from the usual alphabet soup of regulation and guidance, and framing outcomes in everyday terms, there are four key topics that we would like to see addressed.
1. The absence of carbon markets and pricing
We believe carbon pricing is the most effective tool to address climate change. Its lack of international implementation is probably the root cause of the failure of historic COPs to reduce emissions.
Global carbon pricing would address the market-failure to price in the negative consequences of greenhouse gas pollution. By artificially adding in the costs of climate change, it levels the playing field for alternative energy sources (2,3) , thus enabling the transition.
While more than 80 pricing instruments now exist worldwide (4), the average price remains just $19 per tonne – far below the $90–300 range that adequately reflects the harm from climate change and would tip the balance in favour of clean technologies. Furthermore, the inflationary impact of these schemes has been limited, due either to low carbon prices and free allowances.
A global agreement on carbon pricing would highlight the reality of climate change now, propelling action and avoiding a self-establishing market and patchwork of schemes, that is uneven and highly disruptive.
Unfortunately, the development of an international carbon pricing market is notably absent from the COP agenda with organisers insisting it is a national issue.
2. Adaptation investment opportunities
With emissions continuing to rise, focus is shifting from mitigation to adapting to the consequences of climate change. Somewhat ominously, this represents a huge and expanding investment market, projected to grow tenfold over the next five years (5).
Extreme weather events already cost the global economy around $100bn per year in utility outages alone (6). Estimates suggest over 80 million kilometres of power lines will need construction or refurbishment by 2040 (7) . Droughts, which cause about $28bn in yearly losses (8) , are boosting demand for drip irrigation, drought-tolerant crops, and desalination. Water infrastructure alone will need $6.7trn of investment by 2030 (9).
COP plays an important role in facilitating this market expansion, by formalising the projects required within country level National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). This provides the market with clear guidance as to where investment is required. Countries are set to publish COP-aligned NAPs over the coming weeks with more formalised transparency, detail and measurement at a project level. This is set to be welcomed by investors and impacted industries who will have more visibility of a pipeline of projects.
3. Maturing the scandal-hit offset market
Offsets, in theory, allow companies to neutralise their emissions by investing in projects that reduce emissions elsewhere, like a sugar tax that compensates for unhealthy choices. But the market’s reputation has been plagued by measurement failures, low prices and fraud.
COP30 can play a pivotal role in restoring trust by establishing a global standard for high-quality offsets. With rigorous guardrails, offsets could become a legitimate tool in corporate climate strategies.
This is especially relevant for big tech companies, which have long propped up the market to reconcile ambitious net-zero targets with rising AI-driven emissions.
4. Address methane emissions – the ‘cow in the room’
Methane is carbon’s more troublesome cousin, remaining in the atmosphere for a short time but is far more potent. The energy sector has made progress in reducing leaks and flaring, spurred by the Global Methane Pledge to cut emissions 30% by 2030 (10).
Yet 40% of methane emissions come from agriculture, primarily beef production (11). This is a sensitive issue for COP hosts Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter.
Denmark has set a precedent, introducing the first carbon tax on livestock and agricultural lime, starting at $40 per tonne in 2030 and rising to over $100 by 2035. Crucially, it includes allowances to protect farmers, a lesson from France’s gilets jaunes protests.
Brazil’s willingness to makes concessions will act as a litmus test for whether this COP moves from words into decisive action.
In truth, the chance of a Paris-scale agreement at COP30 feels limited, given the world’s second biggest emitter will be absent from the discussion. Nevertheless, we are cautiously optimistic about the outcomes. The EU and Asia are likely to keep pressure up on transitioning, led by their desire to shift to cheaper clean energy that removes their dependency upon other regions.
An immediate market reaction is unlikely but we are hopeful COP30 will lay the foundations for meaningful change.
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1 Joint Research Centre: EU Science Hub: World Emissions Reach Record High (2025)
2 Network for Greening the Financial System: Long-term Scenarios for Central Banks & Supervisors (2024)
3 IPCC Sixth High Level Assessment Report: Working Group III (2022)
4 World Bank Group – 2025 State and Trends of Carbon Pricing (2025
5 United Nations Adaptation Gap Report (2024) 6 IEA (2023), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris
7 IEA (2023), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris
8 The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security: 2021 – FAO
9 World Water Council and OECD, Water: Fit to Finance? Catalyzing National Growth through Investment in Water Security (2015)
10 Joint EU-US Press Release on Global Methane Pledge (2021)
