ETF provider WisdomTree has published a need-to-know list of oil trading, no doubt in anticipation of attracting more investors following the commodity’s price rise throughout the past year.
Brent crude oil recently went above $50 a barrel – a near 100% rise on the January 2016 price of $28.
Both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec countries have separately agreed to cut production, in Opec’s case by 1.2 million barrels a day, WisdomTree notes.
To maintain a handle on the oil price, it is important to keep an eye on what Opec does, and also monitor what’s happening in China. In the firm’s own words, here are WisdomTree’s 5 major points:
· Know your major benchmarks: Brent Crude v WTI
There are two key oil prices that the market tends to follow: Brent Crude, which refers to the ‘sweet light crude’ oil extracted from the North Sea and is used as a benchmark globally; WTI refers to West Texas Intermediate light crude oil extracted from the US, but because it’s landlocked, it can be expensive to transport to the rest of the world. There are other benchmarks as well – like Dubai/Oman which is used as a benchmark in Asia.
· Keep an eye on what Opec does
The 13-member countries (Indonesia has recently suspended its membership) who produce approximately a third of the world’s oil may have reached an agreement at the end of November, but markets were waiting to see what the key oil-producing countries who are not part of Opec were going to do. These non-member countries, like Russia and the US, are ones to watch. The next Opec meeting takes place on May 25, 2017.
· Monitor what’s happening in China
China’s the second largest economy in the world and next to the US, the largest consumer of oil. [China is] also the largest importer of liquid fuels. Whilst China’s growth may not be what it was, they’re still on track with 6.7% growth year on year.
· Focus on macro information
The oil price is susceptible to not just supply side economics but other variables such as stock piles and inventory. Weather related vagaries in Europe and North America can play a significant part, as can geopolitical risk. The latter has the potential to cause disruption in a number of ways.
· Oil trading is both a mixture of fundamental and investment flows
While you can look at some of the macroeconomic fundamentals, a lot of oil contracts are traded by short-term traders. It means that prices aren’t determined just by supply and demand, nor by sentiment alone. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the US publishes a report of the net positions held by non-commercial investors allowing one to track investment flows.
©2017 funds europe
