At the start of the year, gold surged to record highs and silver staged one of its strongest advances in decades. While both metals have since pulled back, their earlier gains, coupled with the fact that resources have quietly enjoyed five years of strong performance, have led investors to question whether they have missed out on the commodities rally. Yet beneath these headlines lies a curious fact: most commodities were nowhere near historical highs.
Of the forty-two commodities we track, only seven – gold, silver, platinum, copper, tin, tobacco, and beef – traded record nominal highs as of February. The remaining commodities were still 46% below their historical peaks. When adjusted for inflation, the picture is even more striking: only gold traded at a real all-time high, while the other commodities remained roughly 73% below their real peaks. This suggests the commodity bull market may not yet have truly begun.
Opportunities are increasingly diverging. For example, gold now appears less compelling in the current environment, while copper remains more exposed to the short- to medium-term cyclical outlook. By comparison, oil, platinum group metals (PGM) and uranium stand out as attractive opportunities as the next phase of the commodity bull market unfolds.
Oil’s overlooked bull market
For years, oil had become not merely unloved, but effectively irrelevant in the minds of investors. However, the Gulf conflict has reminded markets that modern industrial economies remain reliant on it and the great oil bull market may have only just begun.
Prior to the conflict, the oil market was relatively balanced. This was not a market suffering from chronic oversupply or burdened by excessive inventories. The underlying forces driving this oil bull market forward were not created by the closure of the Strait itself; the disruption merely exposed conditions that had been developing for years. Non-OPEC supply growth has been slowing steadily, and there now exists a meaningful possibility it could turn negative within the next few years. Should that occur, the geopolitical implications would be profound.
Oil-market analysts have often minimised this reality. When non-OPEC supply growth slows while global oil demand continues to rise, OPEC inevitably regains both market share and pricing power. For much of the last fifteen years, surging U.S. shale production obscured this dynamic. As that growth now begins to falter, the balance of power in global oil markets may be shifting back toward the traditional producers of the Middle East.
For investors who missed the initial advance in oil prices and energy equities, we believe periods of weakness should be viewed as opportunities rather than warnings. Any pullback associated with a recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may ultimately prove temporary in nature, obscuring much larger structural forces now developing beneath the surface of the oil market.
Upcoming uranium supply crunch
A remarkably robust demand story has emerged in uranium markets over the past five years. New reactor construction programs continue expanding globally, while rapid growth in data-centre electricity demand has accelerated interest in nuclear reactors as a long-term power solution. Taken together, these trends point toward a substantial increase in uranium demand extending well into 2040.
Despite strong demand, the key driver of the uranium market will ultimately be supply disappointment. The industry already appears to be slipping into a widening structural deficit, with problems emerging at several of the world’s largest prospective sources of new production.
Utilities have also allowed a dangerous imbalance to develop. For the past thirteen years, long-term reactor fuel requirements have exceeded utilities’ long-term contracting volumes by more than 50 million pounds annually. Following Fukushima, utilities came to believe uranium supplies would remain abundant indefinitely, fostering complacency toward the deficits developing beneath the surface.
Over the past two years, utilities have again materially underpurchased relative to fuel requirements. Reactor demand requires roughly 175 million pounds of uranium annually, yet utilities purchased only approximately 115 million pounds in both 2024 and 2025. The gap between requirement and procurement continues to widen.
The next phase of the uranium bull market is likely to be driven by utilities and financial investors competing directly against one another for an increasingly scarce physical supply of uranium. Uranium-related investments remain well aligned with a market structure characterised by tightening supply and sustained long term demand growth.
Platinum’s comeback opportunity
PGM prices and related equities have remained under pressure recently, due in large part to the unwinding of excessively speculative long positioning in gold and silver markets. Yet beneath that weakness, an important buying opportunity may now be beginning to emerge.
Platinum continues to trade at an extraordinary discount to gold, reflecting the deeply bearish narrative that has dominated PGM markets for the better part of fifteen years. This thesis has largely rested on the assumption of relentless EV adoption, offset by declines in the use of internal combustion engines. Now that EV adoption trends have begun falling materially short of expectations, the outlook for auto catalyst demand is beginning to improve.
Auto-catalyst demand still accounts for nearly 65% of total PGM consumption and is likely to resume meaningful long-term growth. At the same time, mine supply continues facing persistent structural challenges. The combination of stronger-than-expected automotive demand and constrained supply could mean future deficits in both platinum and palladium markets will prove materially larger than current consensus expectations.
Ultimately, only materially higher prices will be capable of bringing these markets back into balance as the decade progresses. The exceptionally optimistic EV penetration assumptions underpinning that bearish thesis are unlikely to be realised. As this PGM bull market unfolds over the coming years, we expect platinum prices will likely return to trading at substantial premiums to gold once again, presenting a compelling opportunity.
