ABN Amro Investment Solutions, the asset management company of the ABN Amro Bank, expects global growth to slow but remain resilient through the second half of 2026, supported by strong corporate earnings, AI-led investment and consumer spending.
In the firm’s latest investment outlook, Christophe Boucher, CIO, and Benoît Begoc, quantitative strategist, ABN Amro Investment Solutions, said the conflict in the Middle East has emerged as a key risk for markets, with the potential to disrupt supply chains, push up energy prices and complicate the global disinflation trend. While policymakers have made progress in bringing inflation down, renewed geopolitical tensions could reverse some of those gains.
The asset manager expects US growth to cool from strong levels but remain supported by healthy corporate earnings, record spending on AI and productivity gains. Consumer spending is also expected to remain a key pillar of growth, although the bank noted that it is becoming increasingly concentrated among higher-income households, raising questions about how sustainable that support will be.
Europe presents a challenging picture. The bank expects the region to face a weaker recovery due to higher inflation, subdued consumer confidence, elevated savings rates and the lingering impact of energy costs on manufacturing. It does not expect a meaningful rebound in domestic demand and believes any recovery is likely to be gradual and uneven.
Higher rates, AI boom and structural shifts shaping H2 outlook
Despite these concerns, ABN Amro remains positive on equities, arguing that economic growth has proved more resilient than expected and continues to support company earnings. The bank continues to favour US growth stocks, particularly companies benefiting from the AI investment cycle, although it warned that market concentration remains unusually high and could lead to sharp swings in sentiment during periods of market stress.
The firm also maintains a preference for emerging markets, citing more attractive valuations and stronger earnings growth. Chinese technology stocks were highlighted as a long-term opportunity given their exposure to AI, robotics and digitalisation trends.
In fixed income, ABN Amro remains cautious on longer-duration government bonds as persistent fiscal deficits, rising defence spending and inflation risks could keep pressure on yields. Instead, it favours investment-grade credit alongside selected high-yield and emerging market debt.
The bank highlighted risks for the remainder of 2026, including a prolonged Middle East conflict, renewed tariff disputes, rising public debt burdens and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. It also warned that political uncertainty in the US and growing fragmentation in UK politics could add to market volatility in the months ahead.
